Jul thirty, 2021

  • ESPN staff

The 14 SEC presidents and chancellors voted unanimously on Thursday to extend invitations to Oklahoma and Texas to join the conference, and on Friday, both the Texas board of regents and Oklahoma board of regents voted unanimously to formally accept the invitation.

Texas and Oklahoma officially fabricated their first move toward leaving the Large 12 on Monday, when the flagship programs notified the rest of the conference that they exercise not intend to extend their grant of rights media agreement, which runs through June thirty, 2025. On Tuesday, the schools formally notified the SEC they were seeking "an invitation for membership" kickoff July ane, 2025, according to a joint statement, which the schools received Thursday.

ESPN reporters Jeff Borzello, Heather Dinich, David M. Hale, Adam Rittenberg and Marker Schlabach take a look at where things stand and what the domino consequence of OU and Texas leaving the Big 12 would mean.

What we know so far

On Thursday, the SEC unanimously voted to extend invites to OU and Texas for official membership in what would become the first 16-team superconference, and both Texas' and Oklahoma's lath of regents formally accustomed the offering Friday.

OK, Texas and Oklahoma accustomed the SEC'southward invitation. Now what?

The two most likely scenarios: Texas and OU either stick around through June 2025, or they could commodities for the SEC as early as 2022 and each pay a penalty of at least $75 one thousand thousand-$eighty million. Ane source speculated that if the schools make up one's mind to stick around and the relationship sours to a point of deterioration inside the rest of the briefing, they could get to an even smaller settlement. If the Big 12 dissolves before the grant of rights contract expires, in that location is also the possibility Oklahoma and Texas would no longer be jump by it.

Why are Texas and Oklahoma deciding to exercise this at present?

Sources told ESPN there are myriad reasons for the unexpected conclusion, including dwindling dwelling attendance for Big 12 games, recruiting, recent federal court rulings regarding amateurism and proper noun, prototype and likeness, and, of course, money.

According to federal tax records, the 10-team Big 12 distributed nearly $409 million to its members in fiscal yr 2020, or nigh $37 one thousand thousand to $40.5 million per school. That was a slight decrease from the $38.8 meg the league distributed from fiscal 2018; the drop was caused by the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the 14-team SEC generated virtually $768.9 one thousand thousand and distributed $45.5 million to each school in 2020. That number would probable increment with the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, which would permit the SEC to go back to the negotiating table with ESPN. In December, ESPN and the SEC announced a new x-year deal that begins in 2024, which makes the network the sectional rights holder for SEC football and men's basketball.

According to sources inside the Big 12, one of the outset warning signs for Oklahoma and Texas came in May, when a media consulting house indicated the league probably wouldn't be in position to profoundly raise its media rights deals with ESPN and Fob in one case they elapse. Texas Tech president Lawrence Schovanec told the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal in May that those networks declined to open early on negotiations on a new deal considering of the irresolute landscape of college sports and how consumers watch sports.

"The general result is that, at this time, with so much uncertainty in the media market likewise equally the landscape for collegiate athletics, our partners, ESPN and Fox, are non interested in acting preemptively with regard to our contract," Schovanec told the Avalanche-Journal. "They recognize the importance of our partnership, but there's simply as well much uncertainty, and they practise take iv years to go. Then we'll wait until we get to the correct place and fourth dimension."

One source within the league said he had heard rumblings about the possibility of Texas wanting to go out, but added "nobody saw this coming."

What happens to the remaining Big 12 programs?

Unfortunately, the futurity doesn't wait too rosy for any of them. Manufacture sources indicated to ESPN on Sunday the SEC'south potential additions of Oklahoma and Texas might be the offset pace in the formation of a single superconference, which would ane mean solar day include as many every bit lx teams or as few as 32. Under that scenario, powerhouse teams from the ACC, Large Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and Notre Matriarch would fold into ane single entity. Those schools would play each other and no ane else.

The other FBS teams, including some of the teams from the aforementioned leagues and those from the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain Due west and Sun Belt, would essentially drop to a lower segmentation. Other scenarios include the formation of 3 or four superconferences, or some sort of brotherhood between the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 to get-go the SEC'southward growing force.

Until and so, the remaining Big 12 teams accept to decide whether to try to go on the league intact and replace Oklahoma and Texas, or even try to expand. Might Iowa State observe a home in the Big X? The league already controls that marketplace with Iowa. Could Texas Tech detect a abode in the Pac-12? Would Kansas, despite its football futility, exist attractive to the ACC because of its basketball tradition? Westward Virginia already has its optics on that league. And what about Oklahoma Country? Baylor, Kansas State and TCU might be in even more difficult circumstances if the Big 12 folds.

In the by, a anticipated outcome would take been for the remaining Large 12 teams to poach some of the best teams from the American -- Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, SMU, UCF and South Florida. Just the Big 12's continuing has been weakened so much, information technology might end upward being the other way effectually.

Sources take told ESPN that the American Athletic Conference would consider expansion to xiv or 16 teams, and Big 12 teams would exist considered. The plan is to be ambitious, and the roles have seemingly reversed from the concluding expansion discussion when the Big 12 was looking to add teams. This fourth dimension, it'southward the Big 12 that should be concerned about the AAC poaching its teams -- not the other way around.

How will this affect expansion of the Higher Football Playoff?

It is even so to be seen, simply if OU and Texas join the SEC, information technology's not unreasonable to recall the SEC could get seven teams in a proposed 12-team field, including both of their newest members, even if they were to finish 10-2 or ix-3. That potential scenario could diminish support for the 12-team proposal during a summertime that is beingness used to solicit coast-to-coast feedback on expansion from university presidents, athletic directors, coaches, conference commissioners and players.

I source involved in the discussions said they didn't think the OU-Texas news would touch on the timing of a determination on whether to move forward with accepting the 12-team format. CFP executive director Bill Hancock, meanwhile, told ESPN on Monday that the summertime feasibility study of a 12-team playoff proposal is still on runway. The CFP direction committee, which is comprised of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Matriarch athletic director Jack Swarbrick, is scheduled to meet in tardily September with the xi presidents and chancellors who have the authority over the playoff format.

"The timeline hasn't inverse," Hancock said during a brief phone interview from Tokyo, where he is volunteering for the Olympics. "The conferences are withal gathering feedback from their presidents, able-bodied directors, coaches, faculty and players."

Volition this add more than pressure on Notre Dame to join a conference?

Notre Matriarch has three primal priorities in remaining independent. The first is access to the playoff, which a 12-squad model would provide. The second is a home for its Olympic sports, which the ACC gives them through at least 2036. The 3rd is a broadcast partner, which NBC continues to be. In other words, even with realignment, at that place'due south little incentive for Notre Dame to brand a move.

Of class, things could modify. Would the money being offered by a new Big Ten TV deal be enough of a lure? What if the 12-team playoff doesn't laissez passer and, instead, access for conference champs is prioritized? Does the ACC signal that, short of adding Notre Dame, the league could collapse? All of those things are possible, just not probable at this point.

It's too worth remembering the Irish are contractually tied to the ACC through 2036 as part of their grant of rights deal with the league for not-football game sports. The understanding says if the Irish bring together whatever conference before then, it must be the ACC.

Without question, the Large Ten, Pac-12 and ACC are going to pitch Notre Matriarch on affiliation, only every bit Swarbrick said earlier this summer, "We're more than committed to independence than always."

The ACC and Large Ten have strong authoritative ties to Notre Dame. New ACC commissioner Jim Phillips worked as a senior associate athletics director nether Kevin White from 2000 to 2004. Big 10 commissioner Kevin Warren is a Notre Dame law schoolhouse graduate and recently hired Barry Alvarez, a former Notre Dame banana, equally a special consultant to the league. The Large Ten's most powerful athletic director, Ohio State's Gene Smith, played football at Notre Dame.

However, Swarbrick told ESPN on Tuesday the Irish keep to comprehend their position of independence.

What's next for conferences such as the Large Ten and Pac-12?

The Large X is on firm financial ground and doesn't necessarily demand to add simply for the sake of numbers. But there's increasing interest among some Big Ten administrators near whether the league should be ambitious in seeking new members. The Big X's Television bargain expires in 2023.

Sources said the Big Ten likely would only consider schools that are members of the Association of American Universities, a grouping of tiptop inquiry institutions that matters a lot to Big Ten presidents. Every Large Ten schoolhouse but Nebraska has AAU membership, and Nebraska was in the AAU when the Large Ten pursued the school in 2010. Texas is an AAU member but Oklahoma is not. Other than Texas, Iowa State and Kansas are the but other Big 12 schools office of the AAU. There's strong AAU membership in both the Pac-12 (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Washington) and the ACC (Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia). Notre Matriarch is not an AAU member, but the Irish are the conference's clear exception to its AAU preferences.

What happens to non-football game teams inside these programs?

These moves -- and the ones that will undoubtedly follow in the side by side weeks, months and years -- are driven almost entirely by football, with basketball and other non-football sports taking a back seat in discussions. For the nigh office, basketball coaches were in the dark virtually Texas and Oklahoma'south divergence discussions, with multiple basketball coaches in the Large 12 and SEC telling ESPN they found out via social media when everyone else did.

If and when Texas and Oklahoma motility to the SEC, the not-football game teams will probable follow; but if this is the first pace to superconferences outside of the NCAA'southward purview, information technology's unlikely non-football game sports would become that far. Information technology's worth noting the CFP controls the college football game postseason, while the NCAA still runs and operates the men's and women'south basketball game tournaments, forth with every other postseason competition.

The biggest schoolhouse worth watching from a men's basketball game perspective is Kansas, 1 of the true blueish bloods in the sport. There hasn't been some other time when one of the handful of historically elite programs was substantially a free agent, which would be the example if the Big 12 ultimately dissolved. Baylor, which won concluding season'southward national title, is as well in peril if the Big 12 collapses.

The Big 12 has been arguably the best briefing in men's basketball since information technology became a 10-squad league after the terminal phase of realignment. From a resource perspective, the remaining schools -- particularly ones with successful football programs -- are apparently at risk of falling backside.

One other sport to monitor is softball. The SEC, as a softball conference, was already world-class -- it has had at to the lowest degree 12 teams accomplish the NCAA tournament for 4 straight years and held seven of the top 14 seeds in 2021. Adding Oklahoma and Texas to the mix makes that 9 of last year's top fourteen and, in the Sooners, gives the league the most dominant softball program in the nation.

What does this mean for the future of the NCAA?

After a tumultuous 17 months, the NCAA is inching closer to a breaking point. While numerous administrators effectually the country express sheer confusion about the future of realignment, in that location seems to exist one thing they all agree upon: This is the start step toward a breakaway from the NCAA for the power programs.

Every bit 1 Power 5 athletic manager told ESPN this past calendar week, "The NCAA has essentially complanate, and it only hasn't been recognized still."